Nuclear ‘Deal’ brokered by Brazil and Turkey will likely not save Iran from added sanctions.
UPDATE June 9, 2010: In response to Iran’s suspect nuclear program, the UN Security Council has approved new sanctions targeting the country’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, ballistic missiles and nuclear-related investments.
Original Article: Although quickly forgotten, it momentarily seemed as if real historic progress was being made on May 17th this year when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad clasped hands with Brazil’s and Turkey’s leaders at a signing ceremony over the country’s nuclear enrichment programs. This week, that celebratory agreement appears to have done little to delay or prevent a new round of economic sanctions from being placed on Iran by the United Nations Security Council. UN Security Council watchers expect a vote on additional sanctions to be called later this week.
Short-lived celebrations. Iran, Turkey and Brazil celebrate the nuclear fuel swap deal in Tehran Photograph: Atta Kenare
After several months of Iranian courtship and a few hours of intense negotiations, the draft agreement last month between Iran, Brazil and Turkey ended with Tehran agreeing to send 1,200 kilograms of its 3.5 percent enriched uranium over to Turkey in exchange for a total of 120 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) to produce medical isotopes. While this swap mimics a similar deal offered by the UN P5+1 (US, UK, FR, RU, CH, GER) last October, the amount of low enriched uranium being exchanged does not reflect the fact that Iran has produced much more low enriched uranium (LEU) in the 8 months since then. While 1,200 kg constituted nearly 70 percent of Tehran’s total estimated LEU stockpile last October, the same amount today makes up just over half its current estimated total of about 2,300 kg. The deal immediately received skeptical responses by American and Russian leaders when it was announced.
Brazil’s ambassador to Turkey, Marcelo Jardim told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review today that the “Iranian deal represented important progress, although not as much as desired by some countries.” Ambassador Jardim also credited President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Brazil in November 2009 as one of the reasons why Brazil sought to become involved in the Iranian negotiations. For the past several months, Iranian leaders have been earnestly visiting several of the non-permanents members of the Security Council, in order to gather support in opposition of another sanctions resolution – including Uganda, Lebanon, Gabon, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Further demonstrating how seriously Iran is taking the threat of additional sanctions, Iran’s ambassador to the UN invited all 15 UN Security Council members to dinner in New York last month to possibly avert any action in the Security Council.
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she expects Iran will “pull some stunt in the next couple of days” as a UN vote looms, according to Lachlan Carmichael (AFP). Asked what she expects in the run up to a UN Security Council vote on sanctions on Tehran over its controversial nuclear program, Clinton said “I expect Iran to pull some stunt in the next couple of days.”
Asked if she were worried about non-permanent UN Security Council members and emerging powers Brazil and Turkey not backing sanctions, Clinton said: “We’ll wait and see what happens, but we have the votes.”
Pressed as to whether she meant for passage of new Iran sanctions at the UN, Clinton said: “Yes.”
