Russia get its man in the Ukraine
By: Dalai Fazio
It was announced today, that Viktor Yanukovych will be inaugurated Feb. 25 as the new president of Ukraine despite the ongoing challenge by current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who is disputing the results. The outcome certainly makes Moscow happy, but the US and Europe may also have reasons to breathe easier.
Mr. Yanukovych may be the new face of Ukraine to the rest of the world, but he is a well known and well connected figure in his country. Overcoming several “youthful errors” with the law, he achieved a remarkably fast rise through the communist party system before helping to found the political movement he now heads with then President Leonid Kuchma in 1997. Kuchma later appointed Yanukovych to the post of Prime Minister in 2002.
Russia openly supported Yanukovych during the presidential election and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a swift invitation after the results were announced for Yanukovych to visit Moscow in the near future. Yanukovych, whose draws his strongest supporters from the Russian speaking eastern region of the country has been careful to downplay his Kremlin ties so as not to lose votes from the more pro-Euro leaning Ukrainians, but his foreign policy tendencies are well known to be pro-Russian.
Russian business groups have considerable ties in the Ukraine and the Russian navy leases a vital Black Sea base from the government in the port city of Sevastopol. The permanency of the Russian base remained in question throughout the elections, but on Saturday, Yanukovych hinted that the matter would be resolved amicably. “I think, Russian President Medvedev’s initiatives on security are acceptable for Ukraine,” Yanukovych said. “The BSF (Black Sea Fleet) issue won’t be resolved at the detriment of Russia, it will be resolved in the interests of Ukraine, but I do not rule out that BSF will stay in Crimea after 2017”.
Ukraine straddles Europe and Russia
Although it may seem counterintuitive, this election outcome could also yield benefits for Europe and the United States. While Yanukovych strongly opposes NATO membership and may be in favor of extending Russian’s military outcrop in the Black Sea, the energy pipeline battles between Russia and the Ukraine that sparked natural gas shortages throughout Eastern Europe are likely to subside under his presidency. Executives from energy consortiums such as Gazprom, Lukoil, and Evraz Group SA with substantial interests in the country supported Yanukovych and therefore are expected to receive favorable terms in their expansion plans.
A quiet Black Sea region, a calmer Europe and a satisfied Russia is quite probably a gift to President Obama who has other problems to deal with. Moreover, while the democratic transition process in the Ukraine is not perfect, every peaceful transfer of power moving forward in mostly-free, pluralist elections is a gift to the Ukrainian people.
U.S. launches major offensive in Afghanistan on eve of Olympics
Intrepid reporting by C. J. Chivers and Dexter Filkins for the New York Times broke today that the US and its Coalition Partners have launched a major offensive in the south of Afghanistan. Recalling Russia’s military offensive into Georgia during the last Olympic games’s opening ceremony in Beijing (August, 2008) - the move may indeed have been intentionally timed by the Obama administration. Meanwhile, an eery tragedy took place before the games began when a 21 year old Georgian luge athlete died during a practice run.
“Thousands of American, Afghan and British troops attacked the watery Taliban fortress of Marja early Saturday, moving by land and through the air to destroy the insurgency’s largest haven and begin a campaign to reassert the dominance of the Afghan government in a large section of southern Afghanistan.
The force of about 6,000 Marines and soldiers — a majority of them Afghan — began moving into the city and environs before dawn.
As Marines and soldiers marched into the area, several hundred more swooped out of the sky in helicopters into Marja itself. Marines from Company K, Third Battalion, Sixth Marines, landed near an intersection of two main roads at the northern fringes of Marja, piled out of the their helicopters and scattered into the houses and compounds around them.
In the quiet dark of 2:40 a.m., Company K met no resistance. But none of the Marines believed the peace would last the night.
“Basically, we are going into a main hornets’ nest,” said Capt. Joshua P. Biggers, Company K’s commander.
Just after midnight, aircraft bombed the southernmost portion of Marja, where officials believed foreign fighters were hiding. Later, Marines and Afghan soldiers began setting up cordons to the northeast, south and west of the city, in anticipation of a ground assault that was expected to begin within hours.
The operation, dubbed Moshtrarak , which means “together” in Dari, is the largest offensive military operation since the American-led coalition invaded the country in 2001. Its aim to flush the Taliban out of a huge area — about 75 square miles — where insurgents have been staging attacks, building bombs and processing the opium that pays for their war.“ Continue Reading –
Developments in Chad have International Analysts, Aid Groups and the UN on Edge.
Chad, one of Africa's poorest countries is now the site of intense diplomatic negotiations
Over the past 5 years, genocide and proxy wars have ravaged the border region between the African nations of Sudan and Chad. However, in the face of strong misgivings by the United Nations and the international community, thawing relations between the countries’ leaders may bring an end to the cross-border battles and result in the expulsion of UN peacekeeping troops. Many international analysts, aid groups and the UN are on edge.
Chad’s President Idriss Deby said last Wednesday that he would travel to Khartoum this week for talks with Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, his first visit there in six years of rocky relations between the two oil-producing rivals. Mr. Deby who has been in power since 1991 and pushed through a successful referendum eliminating term limits in 2006, is widely regarded as one of Africa’s most corrupt leaders. Mr. al-Bashir, we should not forget, has been indicted for war crimes by the International Court of Justice for his role in the Darfur genocide and does not rank any higher on the corruption chart.
Chad and Sudan have repeatedly traded accusations against each other, while overtly supporting each other’s rebel groups through weapons and safe havens. Sudanese backed rebels even nearly succeeded in taking control of Chad’s capital in February 2008, before being driven back by Deby’s forces. However, a new agreement between the two counties to form a joint border patrol has resulted in the government of Chad refusing to allow the United Nations to continue its peacekeeping and humanitarian role in the country. “We have officially notified the special representative of the United Nations Secretary-General of our wish to not renew MINURCAT’s mandate,” said General Oky Dagache, Chadian President Idriss Deby’s representative to the MINURCAT, as the UN mission in Chad is known.
One might deduct that this stipulation was a quid-pro quo request of Sudan’s government in the agreement as well.
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The expulsion of the UN in this country would be a profound mistake at this time, but the governments of Chad and Sudan seem unconcerned about the practical ramifications. The UN force in Chad has been fulfilling a critical role in the maintenance of peace and order, the training of police forces and local judiciary, and the delivery of essential humanitarian aid assistance. After many years, the toxic mixture of armed rebel groups, drought conditions, corruption, oil profits and millions of refugees has critically impaired the people in this region to project and feed themselves.
The peacekeeping mission, established by the Security Council in 2007, is mandated to protect civilians and refugees as well as promote human rights and peace in the troubled northeastern part of the Central African Republic and eastern Chad. Right now 3,032 uniformed troops from 40 countries are stationed at four forward bases.
Sources at the UN Department of Peacekeeping say this posturing by Chad could be a ploy to extract greater concessions from the UN and reduce the scope of the mission, but others think Chad is not bluffing. Both Chad’s and Sudan’s leaders see the international presences as an infringement on their sovereignty and would like international observers out of this region so they could suppress rebel groups.
Despite Chad’s request, some western governments are maintaining a wait and see attitude. 200 Irish soldiers are still scheduled to depart on Sunday (Feb 7) for a four-month tour of duty and UN diplomats engaged in high-level discussions with Chad over the peacekeeping mission’s mandate have been reportedly instructed by the United States not to make any agreements in Chad, before returning to UNHQ in New York to debrief others. We’ll certainly look forward to upcoming developments.
